Sensex in 2011

Summary of the majority experts view on sensex in 2011

The current market phase: Is a correction which will impact the first half of the year.  The second half will be better.

Expected year end returns: 20%+ (Dec 2011 – 24000 +)

Sectors that will do well: IT, Pharma, FMCG and Banking

Sectors that will not do well: Real estate and Auto

Advice for small investors: Use the correction to build a good portfolio by buying in small quantities.

Historical perfomance of Sensex in Feb

In the past 21 years, February has been rewarding on 13 occasions with an average return of 4.65%. The month delivered some of the best monthly returns in the stock market’s history . February 1992 delivered a handsome 32% gain in a month. The other good years for the February performance were 1991 (24% returns), 1996 (16%), 1998 (13%) and 2002 (8%).

On three occasions in the past four years, the returns were subdued , gains during February 2010 being 0.44%. The average performance in the decade was positive, with investors gaining on six occasions since 2000. The worst performance was in 2007, when the returns turned negative at 8.18%, 2009 (5.65%), 1995 (5.45) and 2001 (1.84).

Private Equity Investors Outlook for 2011

As per a report by Preqin, 70% of private equity investors (PE) either currently invest or will consider investing in emerging markets.  52% of the PE find Asia attractive within emerging markets.  Among the regions that present the best opportunities for investment, more than 50% PE find China attractive, 36% India and 28% Brazil.

63% of PE expect to receive returns of more than four percentage points over public markets.  68% of PE are looking to make new commitments in 2011 expect to either increase or maintain the pace of their commitments in comparison to 2010. In fact, 15% of respondents anticipate committing significantly more capital to private equity funds in 2011.  The longer-term outlook is also promising, with 90% of PE intending to increase or maintain their allocations to private equity over the next three to five years. Private equity will therefore remain an important part of many investors’ portfolios.

India leads the wealth growth

The wealth of Asia-Pacific HNWIs stood at US$9.7 trillion by the end of 2009, up 30.9%, and above the US$9.5 trillion in wealth held by Europe’s HNWIs. Among Asia-Pacific markets, Hong Kong and India led the pack, rebounding from mammoth declines in their HNWI bases and wealth in 2008 amid an outsized resurgence in their stock markets. In India, the HNWI population grew 50.9% in 2009.

The world’s population of high net worth individuals (HNWIs1) grew 17.1% to 10.0 million in 2009, returning to levels last seen in 2007 despite the contraction in world gross domestic product (GDP). Global HNWI wealth similarly recovered, rising 18.9% to US$39.0 trillion, with HNWI wealth in Asia-Pacific and Latin America actually surpassing levels last seen at the end of 2007.

For the first time ever, the size of the HNWI population in Asia-Pacific was as large as that of Europe (at 3.0 million). This shift in the rankings occurred because HNWI gains in Europe, while sizeable, were far less than those in Asia-Pacific, where the region’s economies saw continued robust growth in both economic and market drivers of wealth.

Sensex may cross 23,000 by 2011-end

In an interview, Ms. Madhabi Puri Buch , CEO, ICICI Securities , says the earnings growth of Sensex companies may be 14-15% in 2011 and they are quite positive on pharma and IT.

Sensex may test 16000

Marc Faber , Editor of The Gloom, Boom & Doom, says the Indian markets will remain range-bound for the next few months and can retrace 16000 levels at least. He advises investors to accumulate gold and silver gradually.

Global stocks get cheaper

Even after global stocks rallied 10% last year, valuations around the world fell the most in a decade, leaving companies in Norway , Italy and Mexico the cheapest of all.

India gets lions share of global project finance/offshoring business

Global project finance volumes, according to a report by Dealogic, rose 22% to record $354.6 billion.

India accounted for $81.4 billion, or more than a fifth of the total and higher than any other country, through 163 projects, the Dealogic Global Project Finance Review for 2010 has said.

Read full story at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/finance/india-gets-lions-share-of-global-project-finance/articleshow/7308659.cms


‘More offshore centres set up in India in Q2’.


In a report that would elicit a sigh of relief from the Indian IT outsourcing industry under stress due to the global recession, has maintained its leadership as the key outsourcing destination for the global suppliers, in Asia.


According to a recent study by Everest Research Institute, of the 27 new captive centres established by the global suppliers in the second quarter of 2009, nine such centres were established in India with a mix of tier I and II cities.

Read full story at:
http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/india-still-getslion-shareglobal-offshoring-biz/367030/

India witnesses record M&A deals

As the year 2010 comes to a close, a look back at India Inc's deal activity shows a splendid year, with the total deal value surpassing the previous record set in 2007 and big-ticket deals making a comeback as corporate India regained its deal-making appetite with the highest-ever deals in a single year.

Read the full story at:

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-company/corporate-trends/insatiable-india-inc-sealed-record-55-bn-ma-deals-in-2010/articleshow/7144295.cms

Online auction emerges as new buzzword for art

There is no ready data on the total amount of online transactions for art sales in India, but the 2009 Global Arts Sales Report of Christie’s (the 2010 report has not been released) provides an insight into the importance of Internet in the worldwide arts industry. The report states that 30% of all bids and 14% of all winning bids for art works were done online.

Link:

http://www.christies.com/ 

Political Risk Atlas 2011 shows long-term structural risks for emerging economies

Russia is the 10th-riskiest country for investors , sliding from 15th last year to be placed between Pakistan and the Central African Republic, Maplecroft's annual Political Risk Atlas released on Thursday said. Brazil, India and China, which along with Russia make up the so-called BRIC group of leading emerging-market economies, are ranked 94th, 26th and 62nd, respectively.

Read the full story at:

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/global-markets/russia-is-among-worlds-11-riskiest-locations-for-investors/articleshow/7280379.cms 

http://www.transparency.org/policy_research/surveys_indices/cpi/2010 

Dollar is the currency to own

Analysts predict that the dollar will gain about a 5% against the euro over the year and 11% versus the yen.

Read the full story at:

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/forex/dollar-is-the-currency-to-own-say-analysts/articleshow/7256921.cms

HNIs push up yatch sales in India

Now, in 2010, with the world economy patching itself up and an incident-free coastline, the Indian yacht industry is getting its second wind sailing. Besides outright purchase, some yacht dealers allow fractional ownership — the equivalent of the time-share scheme in tourism resorts.

Read the full article at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-company/corporate-trends/hnis-push-up-yatch-sales-in-india/articleshow/6789812.cms?curpg=1

Indian MF's alpha value

An article on Indian Mutual Funds alpha value.

Read the full article at:

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/personal-finance/mutual-funds/analysis/why-you-should-know-the-alpha-value-of-your-mutual-fund/articleshow/7201231.cms

Investing in Real Estate Abroad

Interesting article on buying property in the US.

Read the full article at: 

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/real-estate/realty-trends/buying-a-house-in-america/articleshow/7167510.cms